https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2982-556X
Figures
Abstract
The impact of modern climate warming on the characteristics of heat and cold waves on the territory of Belarus has been analysed. Since 1988, the number of heat waves and strong thaws has significantly increased (less than 15% of all registered heat waves and strong thaws occurred in the pre-warming period of 1955–1987), while the number of frost and summer cold waves has decreased. The average duration of frost and summer cold waves has decreased by 0.5–1.5 days, the average duration of strong thaws has increased by 1 day, while the changes in the duration of heat waves have been less significant. The greatest changes in temperature have been observed for strong thaws and frost waves (increase of up to 0.8°C). Heat waves are characterized by a decrease in the average duration by 1 day and the smallest temperature changes, because due to increase in average values, summer temperatures got closer to thresholds for a heat wave. Despite the effect of modern warming, frost waves remain the most intense type of extreme temperature episodes in Belarus. The spatial distribution of temperatures during heat and cold waves is either uniform or determined by seasonal temperature gradients.
Citation: Khitrykau M (2024) Changes in duration and intensity of waves of heat and cold on the territory of Belarus over the period from 1955 to 2021. PLOS Clim 3(11): e0000426. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000426
Editor: Teodoro Georgiadis, Institute for BioEconomy CNR, ITALY
Received: April 29, 2024; Accepted: July 23, 2024; Published: November 4, 2024
Copyright: © 2024 Maksim Khitrykau. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Data Availability: Data used in the study is available by request in Belarusian State institution "Republican center for hydrometeorology, control of radioactive contamination and environmental monitoring" (BelHydroMet) or for a fee. According to regulations in Belarus, observation data (which was used in the study), can be obtained only via the request to BelHydroMet. To access the data, contact the head office of BelHydroMet or its Service for International Cooperation and Public Affairs by e-mails (kanc@hmc.by and agk@hmc.by) or by telephone in Belarus (+375(17)3732563).
Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
1. Introduction
One of the most concerning aspects of modern warming is that the increase in average temperature brings changes in the pattern and magnitude of hazardous weather events, and the characteristics of heat and cold waves are expected to be one of the most affected [1]. However, changes in the intensity and duration of waves vary between the regions of the world [2] due to different physical and geographical factors: terrain features, proximity to the ocean or other large bodies of water, and specific atmospheric circulation patterns [3–5].
The characteristics of heat and cold waves for the territory of Belarus available at present time are not sufficiently complete [6], so in this paper we aim to describe the duration and intensity of the waves at the present time, as well as their changes during the period of modern warming.
It is important to note that there is no strict definition of what constitutes a heat wave. Usually, a heat wave is considered as a period when the maximum daily temperature exceeds the 90th percentile for three [5,7] or five [8] days. However, in some cases the 95th percentile is considered [4]. Temperature extremes can also be defined on the basis of mean daily temperature–for example, in [3] the 10th percentile of transformed mean daily temperatures was used as a threshold for cold waves. In this paper, waves are defined on the basis of mean daily temperatures, but the percentile thresholds are separated for the cold (November–March) and the warm (April–October) seasons; cold season includes months when mean daily temperature below 0°С is regularly observed [9].
Heat and cold waves can be combined in one group, since both of them can be described as strong and continuous deviations from the mean temperature. In this regard, we would use the term extreme temperature episodes (ETEs) to refer to these types of phenomena.
Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and other temperature extremes are studied in different regions of the world [2,10], but for Central and Northern Europe, heat waves are a relevant problem, as these regions have not been exposed to them regularly [7,11,12]. Recent decades have been characterized by extremely intense heat waves, such as the 2003 heat wave of 2003 in Western Europe and the 2010 heat wave in Eastern Europe, which caused thousands of excess deaths and economic losses of up to USD 15 billion [13], or the 2018 heat wave, which was characterized by an unusually long period of above-normal temperature and precipitation deficit [14].
Heat waves similar to the 2003 and 2010 events in Europe are expected to become more frequent and intense in the future [1,7,8,14], and climate projections differ only in the magnitude of the increase [1], depending on the scenarios used or regional characteristics. Adaptation to regional characteristics is crucial to increase the accuracy of projections, as anomalies projected by the same model or ensemble may have opposite characteristics depending on the region: in [15] it was shown, that climate projections tend to overestimate the temperature anomalies in the Mediterranean region and underestimate them in Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. Urban heat islands can also be considered as a regional feature and require additional adaptation measures [8].
While the intensity of heat waves will increase, cold waves are expected to become less frequent and less intense in Europe, and may disappear by the end of the current century [8].
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Data sources
The analysis is based on the observed average daily temperature data from weather stations in Belarus for the period from 1955 to 2021, provided by the Republican Centre for Hydrometeorology, Control of Radioactive Contamination and Environmental Monitoring (BelHydroMet), managing organization of all hydrometerological observations, within the framework of cooperation agreement with the Academy of Sciences of Belarus. According to regulations of the state, observation data from regular and automatic stations is not publicly available [16]; for this reason, it can be obtained only in the head office of BelHydroMet or in its Service for International Cooperation and Public Affairs on request or for a fee by e-mails (kanc@hmc.by and agk@hmc.by) or by telephone in Belarus (+375(17)3732563). Before 1955, consistent series of mean daily temperature were available for only a few stations, which was insufficient for detailed coverage of the entire territory of the country. In total, 25 out of 49 currently active weather stations in Belarus have time series covering the entire period from 1955 to 2021; these stations are shown in Fig 1.
The period 1955–2021 is long enough to cover the modern warming and the preceding decades. In relation to Belarus, 1988 is often considered as the beginning of the modern warming period [18–20], because it marks the beginning of a series of extremely warm winters–the first large-scale manifestation of the warming process on the territory of the country. Thus, the period 1955–2021 can be divided into two subperiods, 1955–1987 and 1988–2021 to show the difference between the modern warming period and previous decades. Depending on the magnitude of the temperature increase in different seasons, the modern warming period can also be divided into three phases [19–21]: the winter warming phase (1988–1999), the summer warming phase (2000–2013) and current phase (since 2014), which is characterized by a larger temperature increase in summer and winter and a smaller increase in spring and autumn. As the average summer temperature in the first phase of the warming period remained at the same level as in the pre-warming era, a comparison of the period from 2000 to 2021 with the period 1955–1999 may be a better way to show the changes in the characteristics of heat waves.
2.2. Time series processing
In this paper, extreme temperature episodes are defined on the basis of average daily temperatures: a period of 5 days with temperatures below the 10th percentile is considered as a cold wave, and a period of the same length with temperatures above the 90th percentile is considered as a heat wave. However, if we look at the annual temperature course, the 10th and 90th percentiles would be close to the mean temperature for winter and summer respectively, so the annual course was divided into the cold (November–March) and the warm (April–October) seasons, which provide different thresholds for summer and winter ETEs. Thus, periods with temperatures below the 10th percentile during the cold season are called frost waves, and periods with temperatures above the 90th percentile are called strong thaws; periods with temperatures below the 10th percentile during the warm season are called summer cold waves and periods with temperatures above the 90th percentile are called heat waves. These definitions are based on [3]. In order to show the magnitude of changes during the modern warming period, percentiles were calculated based on the mean for the whole period from 1955 to 2021.
The processing of the time series was also based on the methodology described in [3]. The processing consisted of two steps:
- For each weather station, the annual temperature course was calculated on the basis of the entire time series from 1955 to 2021, and then it was removed from the time series.
- The time series without annual course were smoothed using moving average method (averaging period– 5 days). the processed time series represent the deviation from the mean temperature (DT).
The definition criteria of ETEs described above were applied to the process-smoothened time series with removed annual course. ETEs were described by three characteristics: duration, DT and total number over the period of interest.
2.3. Application of quantile regression
Quantile regression is a relatively new method in statistical climatology, which has proven to be a reliable source of information on the behaviour and changes in trends of extremes of meteorological parameters [22–24]. This method can be described as an “extension” of linear regression, which allows obtaining dependencies y = αx + β values below or above certain percentiles/quantiles (q); this is achieved by solving a linear programming problem [25]. Quantile regression is also a convenient method to study the spatial distribution of meteorological extremes by mapping their values (which are represented by α coefficients in the dependencies) onto the area of interest.
For the quantile regression, processed time series (DT) were used, divided into cold and warm seasons, so that the same criteria were applied for strong thaws, frost waves, summer cold waves and heat waves. The spatial distribution of DT over the territory of Belarus was presented using a dot map, as the weather stations used in the study do not provide sufficiently uniform coverage of the territory of the country. In this paper, QGIS software package was used for mapping the results; base layers of the maps (three levels of administrative division: country, region and district borders) were downloaded from individual country file repository of geoBoundaries database [17] with open CC-BY 4.0 license, available in public domain.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Changes in average duration, temperature and number of heat and cold waves
During the period under review, cold waves in Belarus occurred more frequently in Belarus than strong thaws or heat waves, and winter extreme temperature episodes are usually characterized by longer average duration and higher DT compared to summer ETEs (see Table 1). A comparison between the pre-warming years (1955–1987) and the modern warming period (1988–2021) shows a clear shift in the predominant types of ETEs and their intensity: cold waves became less frequent, while the occurrence of heat waves and strong thaws increased significantly; DT values for cold waves decreased and those for heat waves and strong thaws increased, and the same kind of changes were observed for the duration of ETEs.
Changes in the occurrence of different types of ETEs are the clearest evidence of the effect of modern warming. As can be seen in Fig 2, the pre-warming period (1955–1987) is characterized by regular frost waves (~58.5% of all recorded cases) and summer cold waves (~72% of all recorded cases), whereas the modern warming period is dominated by heat waves (~87% of all recorded cases) and strong thaws (~92% of all recorded cases). The modern warming period is also characterized by a record number of heat waves and strong thaws per one year: three heat waves in 1999 and 2007 and four strong thaws in 2014 and 2020. The record number of frost waves per year (4) was observed in 1969, but the record for summer cold waves was in 1997, when four such ETEs were recorded. It is interesting to note that summer cold waves have become extremely rare since the early 2000s –only three such ETEs have been recorded–while the occurrence of frost waves seems to be the least affected by the modern warming.
Number of ETEs on the territory of Belarus during the pre-warming years (a) and the modern warming period (b).
The difference between the phases of the modern warming period can also be seen in Fig 2A: in 1988–1999 the occurrence of strong thaws increased rapidly, but the increase in the number of heat waves did not take place until the late 1990s; period from 2000 to 2013 is characterized by regular heat waves, and summer cold waves practically disappear. If we compare the period from 2000 to 2021 (second and third phases of the modern warming period) with the entire period under consideration (1955–2021), 68.4% of all heat waves and 56.4% of all strong thaws occurred during this period; at the same time, it covers 26.8% of all frost waves and only 6.5% of all summer cold waves.
It should be noted that during the whole period under consideration the most frequent type of ETEs are summer cold waves (a total of 46 recorded cases), but this high number is mainly due to invasions of Arctic air masses in April, May, September and October, which are regular phenomena in Eastern Europe. With the increase in average temperatures throughout the year, the invading Arctic air masses are no longer reach the percentile threshold and can no longer be considered as cold waves.
Changes in the average duration of ETEs are less clear when compared to the total number of events. During the modern warming period, the average duration of frost waves decreased by ~0.5 days, summer cold waves became shorter by 1.5 days and the average duration of strong thaws increased by 1 day. At the same time, the average duration of heat waves in Belarus decreased by 1 day compared to the pre-warming period (see Table 1). The longest frost wave (21 days) was recorded in 1985, the longest summer cold wave (18 days) in 1981, the longest thaw (26 days) and the longest heat wave (14 days) in 1990 and 2019 respectively (Fig 3). It is interesting to note that the least significant changes in average duration were characteristic of frost waves, and for the whole period under consideration (1955–2021) frost waves have the longest average duration compared to other types of ETEs (8.27 days); however, due to the effect of modern warming, strong thaws now have the longest average duration compared to other types of ETEs (8.31 days). The reason for the large decrease in the average duration of summer cold waves is the same as the reason for the decrease in their number since the 2000s.
Changes in the average duration (blue line) and deviation from the mean temperature (red line) of frost waves (a), strong thaws (b), summer cold waves (c) and heat waves (d) on the territory of Belarus; linear trends are not shown due to irregularity of occurrence of heat and cold waves.
Relatively small changes are also observed for the average values of the deviation from the mean temperature of ETEs: during the modern warming period the average DT for frost waves and summer cold waves decreased by 0.8°С and 0.4°С, respectively, and the DT values for strong thaws and heat waves increased by 0.6°С and 0.1°С, respectively. All these changes are in accordance with the increase in mean air temperature. The most intense frost wave (DT = -15.55°С) was observed in 1959, and the lowest DT values for summer cold waves (-7.7°С) were recorded in 1963. The highest DT values for strong thaws (9.78°С) and heat waves (7.86°С) were recorded in 1990 and 2010 respectively. DT values for frost waves are characterized by the largest increase compared to other types of ETEs, which can be attributed to the increase in average temperatures in winter during the first (1988–1999) and third (since 2014) phases of the modern warming period.
The magnitude of changes in the average duration and DT values of heat waves requires separate consideration: as it was shown earlier, the average duration of heat waves in Belarus during the modern warming period decreased, and the DT values remained practically the same compared to the pre-warming years. It should be noted that if we consider all heat waves since 2000 (second and third phases of the modern warming period), the general trend of their DT values would show a decrease. The reason for this is, paradoxically, the increase in average temperatures. In Eastern and Central Europe, heat waves are mainly caused by quasi-stationary or slow-moving anticyclones [4], and in pre-warming years heat waves could only develop in long-lasting quasi-stationary anticyclones, similar to the event of 2010. With the increase in mean temperature, the gap between mean temperature and the threshold for a heat wave reduces, and it takes less time to reach the heat wave threshold. Thus, more anticyclones now can develop heat wave conditions because they do not need to be quasi-stationary or slow-moving. As a result, heat waves become more regular, but their duration and DT values decrease.
Modern warming has caused noticeable shifts in the characteristics of ETEs, especially in the number of the recorded events, but it can be said that despite the effect of warming, frost waves are currently the most intense type of ETEs in Belarus. Frost waves experienced the least significant changes in frequency compared to other types of ETEs during the period 1988–2021, hold the second place among all types of ETEs in the number of recorded events (41) over the whole period under consideration, have the greatest DT values comparing to other types of ETEs (-10.95°С), and have the second-longest average duration among all types of ETEs (~8 days). The reason for this may be the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which appears to be one of the main modulating factors of climate change in Belarus and neighbouring regions of Europe [6,18]: average summer (June–August) and winter (December–February) NAO values have a quasi-60-year cycle and are in the opposite phases, and since the early 2000s average winter NAO values have been higher than summer NAO values (Fig 4; NAO values are calculated based on time series of monthly values provided by NOAA). Despite the fact that average winter NAO values are positive, which mean more intense zonal circulation compared to the meridional transfer, high circulation activity creates the conditions for frost wave occurrences. Currently, the difference between average winter and summer NAO values is decreasing, so in about a decade the number of frost waves in Belarus and neighbouring territories is expected to decrease.
Dashed lines show 11-year mean values.
Modern warming has caused a decrease in the frequency and intensity of frost waves and summer cold waves, and has made heat waves and strong thaws more regular and stronger, but the trends of the characteristics of ETEs over the entire period under consideration (1955–2021) are not statistically significant.
3.2. Spatial features of temperature during ETEs
The main feature of the Belarusian terrain is its uniformity, and considering that ETEs are always attributed to large-scale baric formations, topography and land cover factors cannot have a significant influence on the variation of the characteristics of heat and cold waves, except for temperature. Temperature differences (in the form of processed time series of DT values) can be described and mapped using quantile regression. In principle, quantile values for the whole period under consideration (1955–2021) would describe the percentile thresholds of different ETEs for each station, and calculations for the periods from 1955 to 1987 and from 1988 to 2021 would show how the percentile thresholds would increase due to modern warming.
The spatial distribution of DT values in frost waves (q < 0.1) (Fig 5A) is generally similar to the distribution of mean winter temperature in Belarus: the southwest is the warmest part of the country, and the northeast is the coldest [26]; however, the difference between regions is only about 1°С. At the same time, during strong thaws (q > 0.9) the highest DT values are observed in the northeast part of the country, while the southwest is characterized by the lowest values on the territory of the country (Fig 5B). Temperature values during ETEs in winter are practically the same in different regions of the country, and considering the spatial distribution of average winter temperatures in Belarus, the temperature increase in the northeast seems to be more pronounced compared to the rest of the country. Threshold DT values during frost waves in 1988–2021 increased by 1–1.5°С, and the increase was rather uniform throughout the country (Fig 6A). Strong thaws are characterized by slightly higher increase in threshold DT values during the modern warming period (1.25–1.75°С), and it can be said that the eastern part of the country experienced a slightly greater increase in DT values compared to the western part of Belarus (Fig 6B).
DT values in cold period of the year,°C, for q = 0.1 (a) and q = 0.9 (b) for the whole observation period (1955–2021). Base layers available at [17].
Changes in DT values during the modern warming period (1988–2021) compared to pre-warming years (1955–1987) in cold period of the year,°C, for q = 0.1 (a) and q = 0.9 (b). The ranges for (a) and (b) are similar. Base layers available at [17].
Summer cold waves (q < 0.1) are characterized by a uniform distribution of DT values, the difference between regions of the country does not exceed 1°С (Fig 7A). The same can be said about the spatial distribution of DT values during heat waves (q > 0.9) (Fig 7B). It should be noted that the values of quantiles describing the percentile thresholds for ETEs in the warm season are significantly lower compared to the same values in the cold season; it is also characteristic for their amplitudes. During the modern warming period, DT values in summer cold waves increased by 0.75–1.25°С, and the increase was very uniform over the entire territory of the country (Fig 8A). on the other hand, changes in the DT values during heat waves in the period 1988–2021 show significant variations: from ~0.25°С in the southern part of the country to ~1.25°С in the north (Fig 8B). Average summer temperatures in Belarus have a quasi-latitudinal spatial distribution [26], so the higher increase is expected in the northern part of the country. The increase of percentile threshold for ETEs in the warm season in 1988–2021 is also smaller compared to the cold season: on average, the threshold DT values in the warm season increased by 0.5–1.25°С, and the increase in the threshold DT values in the cold season was 1–1.75°С.
DT values in the warm period of the year,°C, for q = 0.1 (a) and q = 0.9 (b) for the whole observation period (1955–2021). Base layers available at [17].
Changes in DT values during the modern warming period (1988–2021) compared to pre-warming years (1955–1987) in warm period of the year,°C, for q = 0.1 (a) and q = 0.9 (b). The ranges for (a) and (b) are similar. Base layers available at [17].
The results obtained are in coherence with the conclusions of other studies: heat waves and strong thaws become longer and more frequent, cold waves get shorter and rarer; due to increase in average temperature deviation from the mean increases for strong thaws and heat waves and decreases for cold waves. However, there are two aspects of concern. First, the fact of insignificant changes in DT and duration of heat waves compared with other types of ETEs. It can be explained by the decrease of gap between average temperature and heart wave threshold values, because of which number of slow-moving anticyclones able to create a heat wave increased. Second, high intensity of frost waves in spite of the fact of modern warming, which can be explained by various factors that modulate climate in Europe besides NAO. For example, the effect of ENSO: during La Niña of 2010–2012 frost waves were observed, and El Niño of 2014–2016 is related to one of the harshest droughts and heat waves in the history of weather observations in Belarus. This issue requires additional investigation. Nevertheless, the result obtained in the study complement the research of changes in frequency and strength of ETEs in Europe.
4. Conclusions
The results show that modern warming has had a significant impact on the characteristics of ETEs. Heat waves and strong thaws have become more frequent (more than 85% of all recorded events occurred after 1988), while cold waves, especially in summer, have become rare. Cold season ETEs are characterized by larger temperature changes compared to warm season ETEs (0.6–0.8°С and 0.1–0.4°С, respectively). The average duration of frost waves and summer cold waves decreased by ~1–1.5 days in the modern warming period (1988–2021), and the average duration of strong thaws increased by 1 day. The 1-day decrease in the duration of heat waves in the modern warming period and the practically negligible changes in their temperature can be explained by the increase in the average seasonal temperature, which allows heat waves to develop in other anticyclones besides the quasi-stationary ones. Despite the noticeable effect of modern warming, frost waves remain the most intense type of ETEs in Belarus.
The spatial distribution of temperatures during ETEs on the territory of Belarus is mainly uniform or related to the distribution of mean winter or summer temperatures. During the modern warming period, the percentile thresholds for ETEs would increase by 0.5–1.25°С in the warm season and by 1–1.75°С in the cold season.
The gradual and steady increase in temperature suggests the implementation of appropriate adaptation measures. For Belarus and the neighbouring territories, these include: using heat-resistant materials in construction works; designing buildings with better ventilation systems; reducing fuel and energy consumption for heating and increasing energy consumption for air conditioning; creating irrigation networks to mitigate the negative effects of drought and heat stress on crops; cultivating and developing of different crops and their varieties that are better suited to a warmer and drier climate. At the same time, measures to combat the negative effects of summer cold waves can be mitigated. However, the results show that, despite the warming, the negative effects of summer cold waves and especially frost waves should not be neglected. If the NAO is the main modulator of ETEs in the region, frost waves may continue to occur regularly in the next decade. It is therefore important to continue to take measures against frost damage to utilities and road networks and frost damage to crops.
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank my scientific supervisor V. Loginov for the guidelines for this study.
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